Is the queen ascending to her throne? After weeks in third place in our Best Actress Oscar predictions, Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) has just moved past Glenn Close (“The Wife”) into second place behind Lady Gaga (“A Star Is Born”).
Colman and Close both still have 9/2 odds, but Colman has the advantage of higher placements among our Experts, Editors and Top 24 Users. In terms of percentages, Colman has 18.98 percent to 18.67 percent for Close.
This is the lowest Close has been in our rankings since our predictions center opened in August. She was in first place until Gaga knocked her down last month on the strength of “A Star Is Born.” Colman then turned the chief battle into a three-way showdown by opting to go lead instead of supporting for “The Favourite” and immediately shot up to third.
Colman will only continue to pick up steam as the weeks go along and critics awards get doled out. While Gaga was never expected to be a major player with critics awards, Colman could rack up a bunch that probably otherwise could’ve gone to Close. She is the critical favorite (pun intended) of “The Favourite”‘s three ladies for her outrageous turn as the volatile Queen Anne. And if “A Star Is Born” stays in drama at the Golden Globes, Colman will have the Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress Globe practically locked up.
Gaga still has 37/10 odds to win, but since she’s also a frontrunner in Best Original Song, that might be more incentive for folks to pool their support behind Colman.
Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”) and Viola Davis (“Widows”) remain in fourth and fifth place, respectively, in our odds.
Be sure to check out how our experts rank this year’s Oscar contenders. Then take a look at the most up-to-date combined odds before you make your own Oscar predictions. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until just before nominations are announced on January 22.